Long Decline Ahead for College-Bound Students?
At the end of the school year in 2025, it is projected that we will see an inevitable decline of students eligible to attend college. The Baby Boomers (born 1946-1964) are entering their twilight years. As a result, their children, generally part of the Millennial generation (1981-1996), now make up the largest population in the United States at 72.70 million. The Millennial population has also been growing in the United States due to the increasing number of young immigrants. The Millennials are now around 22 percent of the adult population. Generation Alpha (2010-2024, others say 2025) who are generally the children of Millennials, will most likely become the largest generation in history, projected at over 2 billion people. If we focus on the current population, not just adults, Generation Alpha now at 42.75 million makes up around 12.68 percent of the United States’ population. https://www.statista.com/statistics/797321/us-population-by-generation/.
However, several factors are in play which indicate that there will be a drop in the college-age population. The COVID-19 pandemic is one of the factors. During the pandemic fewer international students traveled to the United States to attend college. From 2019-2020, the number of international students fell from 1,075,000 to 914,000, with lower numbers continuing for a few years thereafter. Although there was a rebound in international students coming to the United States in 2024, the uncertainty of future immigration policies indicates that there will be fewer foreign students in the US in 2025.
China and India have been the two leading countries providing students to study in the United States. However, foreign relations between the United States and China have caused a drop in the number of Chinese students studying in the US over the last several years. That trend appears to be continuing into 2025.
The strong economy, post pandemic, has also encouraged many college-age individuals to pursue other careers or jobs that focus on skills learned though training programs or experience. With relatively low unemployment, many individuals are dropping out of, or not pursuing, post-secondary education.
Others see a dramatic drop in college-bound individuals, likened to a “demographic cliff.” With the 2007 Great Recession, Americans started having fewer babies, which continued except for the brief uptick in births after the COVID-19 pandemic. In the US, the number of 18-year-olds who will be eligible to attend colleges will “erode by 13 percent, or nearly half a million by 2041.” Some see a dramatic economic impact, with fewer individuals able to be employed in jobs that require advanced education. At the same time, other nations are increasing the proportion of their populations that are well educated.
Many colleges and universities may have to close. Many have already experienced a 15 percent decline in enrollment, or a loss of 2.7 million students, from 2010-2021. In the first half of 2024, roughly 26 colleges closed, at the rate of “one college a week.” Iowa Wesleyan University, a 181-year-old institution, closed in 2023. It had discounted the tuition and other fees for students, to attract more applicants, only to find that substantial financial losses ensued. It is anticipated that the rate of college closures will accelerate in the coming years.
However, brick-and-mortar buildings and advanced degrees may not be necessary in our future economy. Work experience may be the key to promotion in the technology field. Arizona is encountering a scarcity of labor in the semiconductor industry. The $40 billion semiconductor processing facility in Arizona has been unable to reach anticipated production levels because of a worker shortage.
One in four Americans now believes that a college degree is “extremely or very important to get a good job.” However, a college or advanced degree may have more worth than just helping one get a job. Moreover, one may not necessarily need brick-and-mortar buildings to get a post-secondary degree. Why not focus on affordability in obtaining an advanced degree, and flexibility in determining what type of education is necessary to integrate future generations in a new world?